Removing noise is difficult, but adding noise is easy. In this work, we show how to eliminate mean-shift noisy components from PCA by deliberately introducing knockoff mean-shift perturbation. Standard PCA is highly sensitive to shifts in the sample mean: a small fraction of samples from a shifted distribution can cause large deviations in the leading principal components. In high-dimensional regimes, existing Robust PCA approaches cannot handle the mean-shift contamination structure inherent in the mixture model. Using tools from Random Matrix Theory, we prove that the mean-shift spikes are spectrally separable from the stable eigenvalues of the original covariance. Furthermore, the original eigenspace remains asymptotically invariant to the contamination, independent of the mixture weight. Exploiting this spectral stability, we propose a simple, two-stage PCA algorithm by adding knockoff mean that identifies and removes the mean-shift component using only standard PCA operations.

This paper focuses on α-divergence minimisation methods for Variational Inference. We consider the case where the posterior density is approximated by a mixture model and we investigate algorithms optimising the mixture weights of this mixture model by α-divergence minimisation, without any information on the underlying distribution of its mixture components parameters. The Power Descent, defined for all α = 1, is one such algorithm and we establish in our work the full proof of its convergence towards the optimal mixture weights when α < 1. Since the α-divergence recovers the widely-used exclusive Kullback-Leibler when α 1, we then extend the Power Descent to the case α = 1 and show that we obtain an Entropic Mirror Descent. This leads us to investigate the link between Power Descent and Entropic Mirror Descent: first-order approximations allow us to introduce the Rényi Descent, a novel algorithm for which we prove an O(1/N) convergence rate. Lastly, we compare numerically the behavior of the unbiased Power Descent and of the biased Rényi Descent and we discuss the potential advantages of one algorithm over the other.

We consider the problem of learning a model from multiple heterogeneous sources with the goal of performing well on a new target distribution. The goal of learner is to mix these data sources in a target-distribution aware way and simultaneously minimize the empirical risk on the mixed source. The literature has made some tangible advancements in establishing theory of learning on mixture domain. However, there are still two unsolved problems. Firstly, how to estimate the optimal mixture of sources, given a target domain; Secondly, when there are numerous target domains, how to solve empirical risk minimization (ERM) for each target using possibly unique mixture of data sources in a computationally efficient manner.

Classical mixture models (MMs) are widely used tractable proposals for approximate inference settings such as variational inference (VI) and importance sampling (IS). Recently, mixture models with negative coefficients, called subtractive mixture models (SMMs), have been proposed as a potentially more expressive alternative. However, how to effectively use SMMs for VI and IS is still an open question as they do not provide latent variable semantics and therefore cannot use sampling schemes for classical MMs. In this work, we study how to circumvent this issue by designing several expectation estimators for IS and learning schemes for VI with SMMs, and we empirically evaluate them for distribution approximation. Finally, we discuss the additional challenges in estimation stability and learning efficiency that they carry and propose ways to overcome them. Code is available at: https://github.com/april-tools/delta-vi.

Understanding how biomarker distributions evolve over time is a central challenge in digital health and chronic disease monitoring. In diabetes, changes in the distribution of glucose measurements can reveal patterns of disease progression and treatment response that conventional summary measures miss. Motivated by a 26-week clinical trial comparing the closed-loop insulin delivery system t:slim X2 with standard therapy in children with type 1 diabetes, we propose a probabilistic framework to model the continuous-time evolution of time-indexed distributions using continuous glucose monitoring data (CGM) collected every five minutes. We represent the glucose distribution as a Gaussian mixture, with time-varying mixture weights governed by a neural ODE. We estimate the model parameter using a distribution-matching criterion based on the maximum mean discrepancy. The resulting framework is interpretable, computationally efficient, and sensitive to subtle temporal distributional changes. Applied to CGM trial data, the method detects treatment-related improvements in glucose dynamics that are difficult to capture with traditional analytical approaches.

Recent years have witnessed substantial progress in understanding the behavior of EM for mixture models that are correctly specified. Given that model misspecification is common in practice, it is important to understand EM in this more general setting. We provide non-asymptotic guarantees for the population and sample-based EM algorithms when used to estimate parameters of certain misspecified Gaussian mixture models.

The problem of model collapse has presented new challenges in iterative training of generative models, where such training with synthetic data leads to an overall degradation of performance. This paper looks at the problem from a statistical viewpoint, illustrating that one can actually hope for improvement when models are trained on data contaminated with synthetic samples, as long as there is some amount of fresh information from the true target distribution. In particular, we consider iterative training on samples sourced from a mixture of the true target and synthetic distributions. We analyze the entire iterative evolution in a next-token prediction language model, capturing how the interplay between the mixture weights and the sample size controls the overall long-term performance. With non-trivial mixture weight of the true distribution, even if it decays over time, simply training the model in a contamination-agnostic manner with appropriate sample sizes can avoid collapse and even recover the true target distribution under certain conditions. Simulation studies support our findings and also show that such behavior is more general for other classes of models.

Recent years have witnessed substantial progress in understanding the behavior of EM for mixture models that are correctly specified.